Zach Parise’s 2012-13 Point Projections

I’ve been doing point projections for veteran forwards on the Devils over the last few weeks over on In Lou We Trust. My blog manager John Fischer sent me some statistics for shooting percentages of veteran forwards on the Devils last season to help me with it, and while I used a lot of the information there, he did provide me with some information on Zach Parise’s projections.

Of course, i’m mainly doing this out of interest. A lot of fantasy people i’ve seen seem to have Parise ranked higher than Kovalchuk. I might be a bit biased here, but I have to wonder how Parise, who wasn’t even the 2nd best forward on the Devils, suddenly becomes better than the best forward on the Devils and a top 5 scorer in the NHL (and his teammate who was tied for 10th in league scoring). Using the point projections methods i’ve used for the Devils veteran forwards, I’ll see if Parise can improve on his 2011-12 stats and outperform his former teammates like the fantasy “experts” are thinking.

Goals

I’m using the same method I used for my projections for Devils forwards. While I did use two methods- John’s method, which only looked at 2011-12 shot toals, I’m going to use the second method, where I looked at the shots/82 over 5 years. Again, there are flaws in my methods, but it is rather accurate.

avg sh% over last 5 yrs Expected sh% avg s/82 over last 5 yrs Expected Goals
Parise 10.3 10.85 312 34

Assists

Again, i’m using my methods from my projections for the Devils forwards. The method is a bit more complicated, so i’d highly suggest you read the methodology in that post.

IPP (weighted) On Ice Shots/82 league avg Sh% projected goals projected factored goals Expected assists
Parise 0.696 939 8.2 34 80 46

Projected Stats- 34 Goals, 46 assists in 82 games (0.97 PPG)

Thoughts on the Projections

Because these projections are based off of shots, I don’t think the assist will be very accurate simply because the Devils and Wild are completely different teams when it comes to puck possession. Parise of course, is a good puck possession player- which should effectively help the Wild out alot. However, they have been a poor puck posession team over the last few years, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t have such high on-ice shot totals. This will affect his projected assist total simply because the team isn’t going to be directing nearly as many shots on goal. The drop in his personal shot totals will probably be minimal, but the on ice shots might be slightly more significant because the rest of his team won’t be shooting nearly as much as they did when he was in New Jersey.

The 34 goals i’ve projected is a pretty reasonable projection. I’m not too confident about the projected assist total though. However, he should be able to hit the 70 point plateau assuming he’s able to continue being someone who can get shots on goal and his team is able to pick up the slack.

Shea Weber’s Offer Sheet and The Risk Involved

I’m not the biggest fan of Paul Holmgren. He makes a lot of short sighted moves with regards to the team’s weaknesses. He traded two good two-way forwards (Jeff Carter and Mike Richards) so that the team would have the cap space to sign Ilya Bryzgalov to a 9 year deal. Of course, he did a good job getting a good return for both, but regardless, the move was pretty short-sighted and didn’t yield any positive results in the playoffs.

So what’s Homer been up to lately? Oh, signing Shea Weber to a 14 year $110 million offer sheet.

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Cam Janssen Ruins Everything

I’m a Devils fan- I know that Cam Janssen isn’t very good hockey. All of last season i’ve watched him play hockey, and once every blue moon, he gets a shot on goal, or a point. Other than that, he occasionally fights, but spends most of his time on ice being a liability. As a hockey player, I hate Cam Janssen. He contributes absolutely nothing positive to the team. I at least had some respect for him seeing as he was well liked in the locker room. After today, I lost the remaining respect for Cam Janssen.

(Update- Youtube pulled the Video. Luckily, Travis Hughes of SBNation hockey has his own version of it if you want to watch)

For those too lazy to watch the 14 minute interview, here are some of the money quotes (via Ellen Etchingham)

You wanna be scary. You wanna put the fear of fucking God in people’s eyes and not just ‘Ooh, I’m gonna beat you up…

No, I’m gonna catch you with your fucking head down and hurt you, because you’re not gonna know I’m coming.”

And the worst of them

Oh, if he’s sucking cock, he’s getting his ass kicked.

Face, meet palm.

Of course, the last quote was the worst of them.

Homophobia in sports is a very fickle subject. There aren’t many (if not any) openly gay athletes in any professional sports. The good news is that thanks to people like Patrick Burke and Brian Burke, strides have been made in trying to encourage sports fans and athletes to be more accepting of openly gay people. The You Can Play Project has been highly successful- there have been many high profile NHL players who have become part of it, such as Zdeno Chara, Claude Giroux and Dustin Brown, as well as two of his teammates, Andy Greene and Mark Fayne.

Of course, this proves that there’s still a lot more work to do on the subject of homophobia in sports. While guys like Chara, Giroux and Brown might be able to appreciate that gay people deserve to be respected as much as straight people, there’s a guy like Janssen out there who isn’t nearly as tolerant.

What interests me more is how the NHL and the New Jersey Devils are going to deal with this. As expected, Patrick Burke plans on talking to Janssen about his comments. However, the Devils and the NHL are the only parties capable of punishing him for his comments. If Sean Avery received 6 games (and an indefinite suspension from the Stars) for making less offensive comments about ex-girlfriends, Janssen should receive a stiffer suspension for highly offensive comments. The NHL is probably willing to do something about this, and I’m guessing Lou Lamoriello, who usually keeps his hand close to his chest, won’t be too happy about a player generating negative press about his team. Hopefully the Devils and the league can punish Janssen accordingly for his stupidity.

As someone who’s watched Janssen derp up on the ice for his team, I hated Cam Janssen for gross inability to play hockey. Now I despise Cam Janssen for not only his gross inability to play hockey, but the fact that he’s a complete idiot.

The Return of the Blog

For all those who followed my site over at Bloguin, this is more or less Hell on Ice version 2.0. The original incarnation didn’t really work out because the other contributors had other blogs to contribute and I myself had to deal with school (and the 2+ hours commute back and forth) as well as my contributions to In Lou We Trust, so there wasn’t new content on a regular basis. Of course, Bloguin didn’t renew the domain name and Now I don’t have a blog anymore there.

After an absence based off of my team making a seemingly improbable run to the finals, I’m back. I can blog on my own schedule and not worry about having to get shut down. And more importantly, no more having to listen to me rage about Joomla. There’s going to be infrequent content, namely analysis that doesn’t really relate to the Devils.

I still have access to the old site’s post interface, so I can bring back some older posts I put a lot of work into.