I’ve been doing point projections for veteran forwards on the Devils over the last few weeks over on In Lou We Trust. My blog manager John Fischer sent me some statistics for shooting percentages of veteran forwards on the Devils last season to help me with it, and while I used a lot of the information there, he did provide me with some information on Zach Parise’s projections.
Of course, i’m mainly doing this out of interest. A lot of fantasy people i’ve seen seem to have Parise ranked higher than Kovalchuk. I might be a bit biased here, but I have to wonder how Parise, who wasn’t even the 2nd best forward on the Devils, suddenly becomes better than the best forward on the Devils and a top 5 scorer in the NHL (and his teammate who was tied for 10th in league scoring). Using the point projections methods i’ve used for the Devils veteran forwards, I’ll see if Parise can improve on his 2011-12 stats and outperform his former teammates like the fantasy “experts” are thinking.
I’m using the same method I used for my projections for Devils forwards. While I did use two methods- John’s method, which only looked at 2011-12 shot toals, I’m going to use the second method, where I looked at the shots/82 over 5 years. Again, there are flaws in my methods, but it is rather accurate.
|avg sh% over last 5 yrs||Expected sh%||avg s/82 over last 5 yrs||Expected Goals|
Again, i’m using my methods from my projections for the Devils forwards. The method is a bit more complicated, so i’d highly suggest you read the methodology in that post.
|IPP (weighted)||On Ice Shots/82||league avg Sh%||projected goals||projected factored goals||Expected assists|
Projected Stats- 34 Goals, 46 assists in 82 games (0.97 PPG)
Thoughts on the Projections
Because these projections are based off of shots, I don’t think the assist will be very accurate simply because the Devils and Wild are completely different teams when it comes to puck possession. Parise of course, is a good puck possession player- which should effectively help the Wild out alot. However, they have been a poor puck posession team over the last few years, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t have such high on-ice shot totals. This will affect his projected assist total simply because the team isn’t going to be directing nearly as many shots on goal. The drop in his personal shot totals will probably be minimal, but the on ice shots might be slightly more significant because the rest of his team won’t be shooting nearly as much as they did when he was in New Jersey.
The 34 goals i’ve projected is a pretty reasonable projection. I’m not too confident about the projected assist total though. However, he should be able to hit the 70 point plateau assuming he’s able to continue being someone who can get shots on goal and his team is able to pick up the slack.